Catastrophe
An Investigation
Into the Origins of the Modern World
by David Keys
Published in 1999,
by Ballantine Publishing Group; price $25.00
David Keys is a British archaeologist and a correspondent for a London
newspaper. His knowledge of early European history and the research
that he put into this book are very impressive, as is his ability to tell
the story of the Catastrophe that changed the world. It is a book
that anyone considering man's place in the world and, more importantly,
his ability to survive its dramatic changes should read.
Starting with European, or more accurately, the Roman history of the middle
of the first millennium A.D.; Keys reviews the dramatic changes that brought
about the fall of the Roman Empire. This collapse was not a result
of low morals and a lazy, indulgent society, but caused by the spread of
bubonic plague from the south and the persistent invasions of the "barbarians"
from the east. Definitive written records of this era are rare, but
do exist, and the author has stitched together a compelling case for the
global collapse of that era's civilizations having resulted from one dramatic
event.
Keys' investigations include historically documented upheavals in the Far
East and less well documented disasters in what would become the Americas.
David Keys has made every effort to show that a global disaster that occurred
around 535 A.D. led to the collapse of virtually every well organized society
of that time. Like a row of dominoes, cold and drought led to starvation
which forced the wild rodents in East Africa, the natural immune reservoir
for the plague, into man's granaries and the fleas did the rest.
Human starvation in eastern Europe and western Asia hit the nomadic peoples
the hardest and their drive for survival ultimately led to the social and
political collapse of the Roman Empire. Modern Europe rose from the
rubble.
The direct scientific evidence for the catastrophe can be found in ice
cores and tree ring data and these data are also presented; although not
so well as the historical and archaeological evidence that make up most
of the book. Oxygen isotope ratios do not make as good a story as
the death of perhaps 90% of the population from the plague or the sacrificial
practices of the Maya of Mesoamerica. Even so, the book is an excellent
overview of mankind's progress in the sixth century A.D. and a good, frank
account of how fragile our institutions really are in the face of a global
disaster (The current hand wringing over global warming does nothing to
address the inevitable and drastic changes that will occur when sea level
rises a few feet).
I am not personally aware of any geological evidence, but the author makes
an excellent case for a huge volcanic explosion occurring between the islands
of Java and Sumatra in Indonesia in 535 A.D. The description of the
eruption, which Keys suggests removed ninety-six thousand cubic miles of
material, is impressive and his list of similar calderas -including Yellowstone-
makes his point rather effectively.
Not only is modern society held together with fragile and easily disrupted
systems, but the global population is much larger than in 535 A.D. There
is little doubt that a major eruption, even one as comparatively small
as Krakatoa, would topple our house of cards and create a true global catastrophe.
And, as it happened back in the sixth century, the civilizations that spring
from the rubble are likely to differ vastly from the current world order.
Bob Stolzle
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